National Missile Defense - Background Information Wouldn't it be better to save lives than to avenge them? - Ronald Reagan On March 23, 1983, President Ronald Reagan proposed the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). The goal of SDI was to set up an integrated network of space, land, and sea systems that would defend the United States from a massive Russian nuclear attack. Funded to the tune of $30 billion over ten years (1), the program produced no substantial results. In 1991, with the end of the Cold War, the fall of the Soviet Union, and the signing of the START I nuclear arms reduction treaty, the need for SDI was significantly diminished. At the same time, however, the Gulf War was showing that a need for missile defense remained. Iraq's military was unimpressive, except for its arsenal of chemically- and biologically-armed missiles. The Patriot system, moreover, showed that anti-ballistic missile technology could be effective and important in the tide of war (2). Finally, Iraq's nuclear program was much further along than analysts expected, leading some to wonder if threats to the American military and citizenry could come from somewhere other than Russia. President Bush reacted to these events by "[refocusing] the SDI program in 1991 from its emphasis on defending against a massive Soviet missile attack to a system known as GPALS (Global Protection Against Limited Strikes), which increased emphasis on missile threats against deployed American forces" (3). Of the entire, immense arsenal at Saddam Hussein's disposal, it was only his ballistic missiles that inflicted any serious harm on US and allied forces and assets during Operation Desert Storm. What is more, had those missiles been loaded with chemical, biological or nuclear weapons the damage would have been orders of magnitude greater than it proved to be. - The Center for Security Policy In 1993, under President Clinton, SDI was redefined once more, with a three-part program to create Theater Missile Defense for American troops overseas, National Missile Defense (NMD) to defend the US against small-scale nuclear attacks, and advanced ballistic missile technology for future program development (4). National Missile Defense research was well-funded but not a priority of the first order until 1998. According to a Rand Corporation report: "Three particular developments in 1998 catalyzed the push to deploy: (1) the nuclear tests by India and Pakistan, which validated fears of further nuclear proliferation; (2) the Rumsfeld Commission report, which found that the ballistic missile threat to the United States is broader, more mature, and evolving more rapidly than originally surmised and that it may emerge with little or no warning (Rumsfeld, 1998); and (3) the Taepo Dong-1 missile test by North Korea, which reinforced the Rumsfeld Commission findings by illustrating that key technological hurdles to intercontinental ballistic missile development (in this case, multiple staging) may be overcome without warning" (5). SDI was designed to deal with the Soviet Union, NMD is designed to deal with small nuclear attacks from Iran, Iraq, North Korea, and possibly Libya. The premise behind NMD is that without the presence of the Soviet Union, the limits on nuclear proliferation and missile technology are gone, and that while we could be certain that the Soviets would never attack the US, since they'd be prompting assured destruction, small "rogue nations" might not be so wise. These rogue nations, isolated from the international community and often ruled by dictators unresponsive to their populace, could threaten the United States with nuclear attack out of desperation, and without having to answer to their populaces for risking destruction. NMD is currently a Deployment Readiness Program. The third test of the technology will take place next month (June 2000), after which President Clinton is to be presented with a Deployment Readiness Review by the Pentagon (6). Clinton will then decide whether to go ahead with deployment of the system. If he decides to deploy, the C1 phase of the system, which will defend the United States against only four ICBMs that do not have countermeasure technologies, will be in place by 2005 (7). The cost of NMD development over the past 10 years has been $40 billion (8). The cost to deploy C1 will be an additional $10 billion (9).